Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!

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NFP time. All you need to know

NFP time. All you need to know

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

GBP/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver moves lower before NFP number and stands at 61.8% retracement area.

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EU Market View

Asian shares lost ground on Friday despite gains on Wall Street, as the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus across the region heightened worries about its economic recovery. Uncertainty about Chinese policy has also left investors in Asia nervous, though this week regional indices clawed back some of last week's losses caused by Beijing's crackdowns on the technology and education sectors. China on Friday reported 124 confirmed cases for Aug. 5, its highest daily count for new coronavirus cases in the current outbreak, fuelled by a surge in locally transmitted infections. Authorities have imposed travel restrictions in some cities.

The NFP report is set to show an increase of 870,000 jobs in July, similar to levels seen in June. The Unemployment Rate is set to fall from 5.9% to 5.7% and wages annual wage growth to advance from 3.6% to 3.8%. Unquestionably markets are looking for a strong NFP number today.

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1850, under pressure as higher US Treasury yields support the dollar after hawkish comments from Fed officials. The dollar crept higher on Friday in the lead up to the release of U.S. employment data, as traders expect strong numbers that could make the case for faster U.S. policy tightening at a time when action in Europe or Japan seems long distant.

Oil was up Friday morning in Asia but headed for its biggest decline since late October 2020. Concerns as countries implement restrictive measures to curb their latest COVID-19 outbreaks continue to cloud the fuel demand outlook. However, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel helped cap the black liquid's losses. Japan extended its state of emergency earlier in the week to more prefectures outside Tokyo, while China, the world’s top oil importer, imposed restrictive measures as it deals with its latest outbreak.

Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, but remained near the key $1,800 mark as investors await the latest U.S. jobs report. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s remarks earlier in the week that conditions for a rate hike could be met in late 2022 sparked concerns that asset tapering could begin as early as this year. His views were echoed by Fed Governor Waller as the economic recovery from COVID-19 continues and the labor market improves.

 

EU Key Point

  • Germany June industrial production -1.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected.
  • US Senate leader Schumer confirms infrastructure amendment process debate will recommence Saturday.
  • US Federal Reserve has lifted its restrictions on JPMorgan imposed after FX manipulation.
  • China's state planner says again it will release reserves of commodities when necessary.
  • USD is ticking a little higher in Asia - AUD the biggest loser.
  • RBA Gov. Lowe says do not need macroprudential tightening, might be needed next year.
  • Australian state NSW (Sydney the capital city) records another record high new COVID-19 case count)
  • RBA Gov Lowe: Says the Australian economy has bounced back faster than expected

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Bulls Are Coming Back

The US dollar index rose to 105.40 after the Fed’s 75-basis-point key rate hike, while the stock and the crypto markets fell. However, during the past few days, investors and traders returned to risk assets as they expect inflation growth to slow. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, announced the Fed might start cutting the key rate by 2024, which is the most evident hint of an upcoming market reversal.

What to trade on June 20-24?

Last week was shocking!  The US dollar gained more than 2% against other currencies ahead of the 75-basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday but dropped after the announcement…

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