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JP Morgan forecasts USD/CHF may drop to 0.9000
Information is not investment advice
USD/CHF has been trading in a range between 0.9200 and 0.9000 since late July. Analysts from JP Morgan will consider selling USD/CHF, when it retests the top of its range at 0.9200. Elsewhere, they are confident the pair will eventually break through 0.9000.
The most important even of the day is the Fed’s report today. It definitely will add fresh volatility to the market. Most strategists and JP Morgan’s, in particular, await the Fed to deliver the dovish statement with economic guidelines up to 2023. The central bank may leave rates at low levels during this period. Even though the recent US data comes better than expected, Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell should stay uncertain and pessimistic over the recovery. As a result, the US dollar may plummet amid the Fed’s pressure as well as USD/CHF.
A bit earlier another economic indicator will be out: US retail sales. This report may impact the pair too. It will be released at 15:30 MT time. If sales are greater than forecasts, the USD will rise (USD/CHF too). Otherwise, if sales are worse than estimates, the USD will fall, pushing USD/CHF to the downside.
Let’s look at the 4-hour USD/CHF chart. If the pair breaks down the support of 0.9050, it may fall deeper to the low of September 1 at 0.9010. In the opposite scenario, if the price manages to cross the high of September 10 at 0.9105, the way towards the next resistance of 0.9130 will be clear. Follow economic releases!
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Global stocks were mostly lower on Monday, following the weakness on Wall Street on Friday that stemmed from the weaker-than-expected retail sales report for December.
Most analysts claim EUR/USD will dip to 1.2000. After that, the pair should reverse to the upside.
Asian equity markets began the week cautiously after Friday’s losses on Wall St. Mixed Chinese GDP added to the tentative mood for stocks.