Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
Japanese Yen significant weakness rises questions
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
AUD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand above 38.2%, there is a battle between bulls and bears that is taken place.
EU Market View
Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly positive as the region gradually broke free from the mundane tone from Wall Street. Asian shares were a touch below a recent three-month top on Thursday with China a tad weaker as investors weighed inflation concerns ahead of key U.S. economic data while oil prices rose to near 1-1/2 year highs. White House said US President Biden had a constructive and frank discussion with Republican Senator Capito and that they agreed to talk again on Friday.
A weekly unemployment report and May private payrolls data on Thursday will be followed by monthly jobs numbers on Friday, with investors looking for signs of an economic rebound and rising inflation. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker also restated his call that "it may be time to at least think about tapering our $120 billion in monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases."
The Fed has already announced it would begin unwinding the corporate bond holdings it acquired last year to calm credit markets at the height of the pandemic. Adding to inflation fears, oil prices hit the highest level in 1-1/2 years led by a decision by major producing nations to restore supply only gradually while the slow pace of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran also helped. The U.S. Federal Reserve published its "Beige Book" report, which pointed to labour shortages and inflation pressures.
The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, remaining near five-month lows, ahead of key economic data which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy thinking. The dollar has remained broadly offered for most of 2021 as traders have reacted to ultra-easy Federal Reserve policies, and the suggestions that these would stay in place for some time, as the world recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, some traders have started to become nervous as a surprisingly strong U.S. economic rebound and growing inflation concerns pose a threat to this key assumption that interest rates stay low for a prolonged period.
Oil prices rose for a third day on Thursday on expectations of a surge in fuel demand later this year, particularly in the United States and Europe and China, at the same time major producers are maintaining supply discipline.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, US ADP, IJC, ISM Services PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Quarles speeches.
EU Key Point
- AUDNZD at key area for seller
- ICYMI: Fed plans to wind down corporate bond holding
- Germany reports 4,640 new coronavirus cases, 166 deaths in latest update toda
- US announced new delayed tariffs against six countries re tech company’s ta
- China Caixin/Markit PMIs Services 55.1 and Composite 53.8 for Ma
- Australia trade balance for April shows a surplus of AUD 8028m (expected surplus A$8250m).
- EU official says he expects an Iran deal at next week's talks recommencement.
- Australian Construction PMI (May) 58.3 (prior 59.1).
- Federal Reserve says it plans to wind down its coronavirus pandemic Corporate Credit Facility.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.