Best Trade Ideas for April
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Inflation risks boost US dollar.
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
EUR/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.
Fibonacci Levels
XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand above 23.6% retracement area. Bearish pressure is growing after a strong US inflation number.
EU Market View
Asian equity markets were pressured following on from the losses in the US post-CPI. Asian shares slipped to seven-week lows on Thursday after a shocking rise in U.S. inflation bludgeoned Wall Street and sent bond yields surging on worries the Federal Reserve might have to move early on tightening. Asian markets were already on the backfoot this week amid inflation worries and a tech sell-off on Wall Street, and nerves were further jangled on Wednesday when Taiwan stocks tumbled on fears the island could face a partial lockdown amid an outbreak of the virus.
The dollar edged higher in early European trade Thursday, with the safe haven currency supported by concerns of an earlier than expected Federal Reserve response to inflationary pressures in the wake of worryingly large jump in U.S. consumer prices. The CPI rose 4.2% in April from a year ago, according to data released on Wednesday, well above consensus forecasts for 3.6% and climbing to its highest rate since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. Benchmark 10yr U.S. Treasury yields rose to a five-week high above 1.70% overnight, increasing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, but have since edged back down to 1.685%. The main driver of these dollar gains has been the surge in U.S. inflation, and the concern this will force the Fed to move away from its ultra-easy monetary policies sooner than its current guidance suggests. Rising prices and costs can crimp consumer demand and corporate profitability. They could also pressure the Fed to tighten monetary policy, which in turn could harm economic growth and stock valuations.
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, PPI, Banxico rate decision, BoE's Cunliffe, Bailey, Fed's Barkin, Waller, Bullard speeches.
EU Key Point
- Germany reports 17,419 new coronavirus cases, 278 deaths in latest update today.
- BOJ governor Kuroda attributes sharp rise in US CPI to base effects
- Japan's government is asking business to help with the vaccination program.
- The BOJ says its ready to extend pandemic relief beyond the September deadline if needed.
- Kuroda says the BOJ is implementing easing steps no other central bank is taking.
- Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says Japan's economy is picking up as a trend.
- USD/JPY consolidates in a range near one-month tops, just above mid-109.00s.
- USD/CHF snaps three-day uptrend, looks to US data.
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