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How Many Fed Rate Hikes the USD Will Like?

How Many Fed Rate Hikes the USD Will Like?

Information is not investment advice

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, at 20:00 GMT+2. As inflation keeps surging, this will be the first small attempt to curb it. What does it mean for the US dollar? Let’s find out.

What Led To Rate Hikes

The rise of inflation is undoubtedly a huge problem for the United States right now. The annual inflation rate reached 7.9% in February 2022, the highest level since January 1982. At the same time, the economy is expanding at an ultra-fast pace. For example, the US unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% - a new post-pandemic low. Another factor that triggers Fed to act sooner rather than later is the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. The US sanctions against Russia and the ban of Russia's oil export boosted commodity prices and left no doubt about upcoming rate hikes.

How Many Rate Hikes to Expect

In addition to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, the regulator will release a so-called dot-plot. This is a report, where the Fed members post their expectations of rate hikes. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg see 5 rate increases with the rate reaching 1.25% this year. However, some analysts see an even more hawkish Fed with seven interest rate changes.

The US dollar will likely react to the actual data in these projections. If the Fed turns out to be more hawkish than the market expects it to be (with more than seven rate hikes or half-point rate hike) the USD will soar.

The USD ahead of the Event

If you look at the chart of the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the American currency, you can notice that the decision has already been priced into the market. As a result, the USD has reached the 99.40 level. Thus we can expect a sharp reversal after the meeting unless the Fed surprises. In that case, the US Dollar index can plunge to 98 and even lower to 96.50. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve may express cautiousness amid the ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the possible slowdown of economic growth.

UsDollarDaily.png

EURUSD has been trading within a symmetrical triangle. That is, after a downtrend, we may see a continuation of the downtrend and reach the support levels at 1.0900 and 1.0850. However, if the Fed fails to surprise the market, the upside momentum to the resistance of 1.1100 (50-period MA) on H4 will be in focus.

EURUSDH4.png

Follow the moves of EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, and US500 ahead of the big event for the Forex market with FBS! 

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The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.

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Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?

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Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?

The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.

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