Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!
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Gold had to rise above $2 000 after the poor ADP report, but it didn’t, the current rising US dollar has stopped the yellow metal from rallying upward. Analysts widely expected that 1.25 million would have been employed in the USA, but the actual numbers turned out disappointing: 428 000. As you may know, the ADP report is often used as an initial assessment of the US labor market and helps to predict what will be the NFP like. Nevertheless, the last two times ADP reports failed to play this role as they came out worse than the forecasts, while NFP came out better.
The recent dovish Fed statement weighed on the US dollar and underpinned gold, leaving interest rates low for longer. However, later on, upbeat Manufacturing PMI reports from two world’s largest economies improved the overall sentiment and pushed the safe-haven metal to the downside. Most analysts still foresee further declining of the US dollar in the long run, despite the short recovery.
Looking from the technical perspective, the yellow metal has been fluctuating between two converging trend lines and have established a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Based on the latest solid rally, the triangle indicates the current consolidation phase and the further bullish continuation. Therefore, pay closer attention to the breakout of the triangle.
There is strong support of $1 950, located just below the current price. The yellow metal is unlikely to break it through, but at the same time, there is no strong movement to the upside at the moment. Gold bulls may find current low levels a good entry point. Traders mainly focus on three resistances: yesterday’s high of $1 990, the psychological mark of $2 000, and the key level of $2 015. However, if the price manages to break the support of $1 950, the way to the next support of $1 930 will be clear. Follow further news and catch the market movement!
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