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GOLD: correction time
Information is not investment advice
The advance of gold (XAU/USD) this week has been too rapid. The precious metal got overbought. Both on the W1 and H4, the price highs weren’t confirmed by the highs of the Awesome Oscillator. In other words, there was bearish divergence. On the D1, a spike was formed and XAU/USD turned around to the downside and closed at the previous day low thus engulfing Tuesday’s and Monday’s candlesticks. It seems that there’s an interim top and that the correction might take the price further down.
A decline below 1,540 (50-period MA on H4) will open the way down to 1,528 (50% Fibonacci of the November-January advance). The next support will be at 1,509. The major resistance is located at 1,557. The return to this area may once again attract sellers. Only the advance above this point will let the price rise back to 1,577.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?