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Gold Awaits US Jobs Data

Gold Awaits US Jobs Data

Information is not investment advice

During this week gold has been consolidating in the $1807-$1820 range waiting for the US jobs data announcement. After the past release on August 6, gold fell by almost 6%.

Why is it so important?

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium that tapering could begin this year, but the Fed will remain cautious in its decision to raise interest rates.

The labor market is one of the main indicators of the US economic health, which recovery can push the Federal Reserve to start pandemic stimulus tapering and interest rates increasing.

While gold is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, caused by massive stimulus measures, higher interest rates can weaken investors’ interest in gold.

Technical analyses  

4H Chart

XAUUSDH4.png

Gold did not show an expected response to the dovish Powell’s speech. It means markets recognize that the direction for policy is now starting to wind back stimulus. In this case, any hawkish statement can weaken gold and sent it down to $1700 in a couple of hours. In this case, it looks risky to open any trades before the jobs data announcement.

  • If the jobs data announcement is better than expected, the gold will drop with a target of $1730.
  • If the jobs data announcement is worse than expected, the gold will rise with a target of $1830.

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Bulls Are Coming Back

The US dollar index rose to 105.40 after the Fed’s 75-basis-point key rate hike, while the stock and the crypto markets fell. However, during the past few days, investors and traders returned to risk assets as they expect inflation growth to slow. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, announced the Fed might start cutting the key rate by 2024, which is the most evident hint of an upcoming market reversal.

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