Fed Keeps Pushing USD to 2000s Highs
The US dollar index has all chances of reaching the 2000s high of 120.00.
Global Reversal in USDJPY
Information is not investment advice
What happened?
Historically investors treated the Japanese Yen as a safe haven in times of world crisis. However, three weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, the JPY has plunged to a five-year low against the US dollar.
Why is the yen falling?
Falling interest rates and high commodities prices are the main characteristics that usually push the Yen up against other currencies in times of global market upheaval. Yen’s safety was caused by the Japanese current account surplus.
Unfortunately for the yen, these factors work in reverse as well. Nowadays, global interest rates are increasing, energy and commodities prices are skyrocketing, and Japan's current account surplus is melting.
Crude oil, which is trading around $115, meets most of Japan's primary energy needs. Japan is also one of the world's biggest importers of liquefied natural gas, which accounts for around a quarter of its energy balance. These factors mark a sharp deterioration in the country's terms of trade, and the yen-boosting current account surplus that Japan has run for decades may soon become a deficit.
If we consider that the Federal Reserve might increase the key rate by 50 basis points in May, plus another 25 points at each of the next five meetings in 2022, then we can conclude that USDJPY has more space to run higher. Moreover, energy prices may remain high for a long time, pressing the yen even more.
Technical analysis
USDJPY, monthly chart
The monthly chart confirms our suggestions. As we can notice, the price has formed a global bullish wedge. Moreover, the breakout has already happened. That’s why there is no doubt USDJPY is now absolutely bullish in the long term.
USDJPY, Weekly chart
Looking at the lower timeframe, we can suggest that USDJPY might reverse at 124 and return to 115 for a global wedge’s retest.
As a result, there are three trading options:
- Follow the trend and buy with the target at 124.
- Sell the pair at 124.
- Open a buy trade at the wedge’s retest.
Similar
The BOJ doesn’t Want to Help the Yen
Over the past year, the yen has been moving lower against the dollar mainly because of the overall USD strength. But there’s more behind the weakness of the JPY. How low could the currency go, and what drives USDJPY?
The US Dollar is Still the King, But!
Despite a slight decline from its highest levels since 2002, around 109 range, it is just a correction, and the green king, the US dollar, will resume its rally…
Popular
Fed Keeps Pushing USD to 2000s Highs
The US dollar index has all chances of reaching the 2000s high of 120.00.
Gold isn't saving investors from inflation
Many investors treated gold as a protection against inflation. However, last week, gold lost its major support and dropped despite rising inflation. Why did it act like this?
Bitcoin Skyrockets Ahead of ETH Merge and US CPI Release
First, "ETH merge" Google requests are on the rise. At the same time, "buy ETH" requests are at their two-year lows, which is quite a negative factor ahead of the vast update. The community either doesn’t believe in the success, or they are following the "buy the rumors – sell the news" rule and waiting for the massive dump after the merge.
Choose your payment system
