Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
Global markets were lower yesterday
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now trading within the Kumo. Any decisive movement to the north will fuel the pair to eliminate the upper level of the cloud, with immediate target the previous resistance level. On the other hand, further drop of the market will lead the exchange rate deeper into the Kumo.
In today's calendar the most important data release is the US CPI inflation figures due out 14:30 CEST. Inflation likely rose to above 8% due to mainly a jump in commodity prices but it should be expected that core inflation rose further.
Global markets were lower yesterday as the stagflation theme continues. Both the US and European session ending close to day’s low, and futures are lower on both side of the Atlantic this morning. Defensive value outperforming with banks doing better despite the stagnating environment. Value has outperformed quality by more than 10% YTD, but valuation suggest there is more to come. Uncertainty moved higher yesterday with VIX north of 24. In US Dow Jones closed lower by -1.2%, S&P 500 -1.7% and NASDAQ -2.2%. Asian markets are in negative territory this morning as the risk off sentiment is spreading in Asia as well.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.