Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
GBP/USD: trade the epic breakthrough
Information is not investment advice
GBP/USD is gradually making a big breakthrough both on a strategic and tactical level.
In the long term, 1.37 is the gateway to the highs of 2017. Therefore, the pair is now in the four-year resistance zone. 1.43 is the long-term target for bulls. It may take a few months – or weeks – for GBP/USD to get there. Therefore, if you like position trading – that’s definitely your chance. However, be prepared to see corrections on the way: 1.34 may be a possible checkpoint for a bearish reversal in the long run.
In the midterm, you will see that most the currency pair performance is contained with the channel marked in the below H4 chart. You will note that GBP/USD frequently deviates from the channel and breaks through the border of the channel. So far, going above 1.37 doesn’t cross the upper side, but still – don’t be surprised if it goes down to 1.36 before making another upswing and continuing the mid-term uptrend.
Primary scenario: the price bounces downwards, dips below 1.37, possibly drops to 1.36, reverses upwards again
Secondary scenario: the price goes significantly above 1.37, corrects downwards to touch 1.37 or dip slightly below it, gets back to the upside.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.