G20: what did the leaders decide?
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GBP/SEK is headed upwards
Information is not investment advice
The British pound outperformed the Sweden Krona, but may be pressed down by fears over no-deal Brexit. GBP/SEK is trying to recover its losses. However, it’s still well below levels of the last week. It has slumped significantly to rates unseen for two and a half years at 11.18, after touching the 11.65 level at the first days of September.
Traders need to pay close attention to the BoE’s monetary policy statement on Thursday at 14:00 MT time. If the central bank makes a more dovish statement, for instance, gives guidelines for low rates for longer, the GBP will fall. Otherwise, if the bank delivers a more hawkish speech, the GBP will rise. Elsewhere, UK retail sales will be out on Friday at 9:00 MT time. As always, better-than-expected data will underpin the pound. However, the most significant problem, which may weigh on the British pound is, of course, Brexit. Most analysts believe that the likelihood of the no-deal withdrawal is getting higher every day. If EU-UK tensions escalate, the pound sterling may dip.
One economist from ING claims: “A deal is now at best a 50:50 probability. The key factor will be whether the Internal Markets Bill makes its way through the Commons and Lords successfully. If so, the EU is highly unlikely to sign a free-trade agreement with the UK given the lack of trust, and the threat of withdrawal agreement breach”.
Today the UK’s consumer price index exceeded expectations. It turned out 0.2%, while the forecast was 0.1%. As a result, the GBP rose, driven not only by the upbeat CPI, but also by the risk-on sentiment amid vaccine hopes. As for the Sweden side, the country reported optimistic unemployment figures. However, investors shrugged off that news as they are interested more in the pound’s efforts to rebound.
Technical tips
Let’s look at the GBP/SEK chart. It keeps rallying higher. If it manages to break the high of September 9 at 11.45, it may surge to the next resistance of 11.55. In the opposite scenario, the move below yesterday’s low of 11.31 will drive the price deeper to the next support of 11.18.
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