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GBP: long-term outlook

GBP: long-term outlook

Information is not investment advice

Technically, the GBP hasn’t moved much from the zone it has been in since 2018. Against the USD, the British pound has been in a zig-zag-shaped larger trend for the last 1.5 years, capped by 1.3340 and supported by 1.2070. Currently, it is in the middle of that channel experiencing an increasing bearish gravity. EUR/GBP, on the other hand, looks more stable and concentrated in a larger channel capped by 0.9050 and supported by 0.8660 for the last 3 years. Disturbances in the Eurozone are the main factor holding this currency from lifting upwards. The GBP definitely has a tough year ahead, hence the downward forces pressing on the GBP/USD and the upward forces pushing the EUR/GBP will be constantly testing further limits in the respective directions.

Fundamentally, the latest reports say that the UK economy shrank 20% during April bringing it back to 2002 state and seeing a plunge in the output of 11%. Altogether, that makes observers expect full recovery to pre-virus state not earlier than in 2022. From a human point of view, that’s a hard pill to swallow. Form a trader’s point of view, that gives clarity to the fundamental background you operate in. Set your farthest targets accordingly.


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