Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
GBP: long-term outlook
Information is not investment advice
Technically, the GBP hasn’t moved much from the zone it has been in since 2018. Against the USD, the British pound has been in a zig-zag-shaped larger trend for the last 1.5 years, capped by 1.3340 and supported by 1.2070. Currently, it is in the middle of that channel experiencing an increasing bearish gravity. EUR/GBP, on the other hand, looks more stable and concentrated in a larger channel capped by 0.9050 and supported by 0.8660 for the last 3 years. Disturbances in the Eurozone are the main factor holding this currency from lifting upwards. The GBP definitely has a tough year ahead, hence the downward forces pressing on the GBP/USD and the upward forces pushing the EUR/GBP will be constantly testing further limits in the respective directions.
Fundamentally, the latest reports say that the UK economy shrank 20% during April bringing it back to 2002 state and seeing a plunge in the output of 11%. Altogether, that makes observers expect full recovery to pre-virus state not earlier than in 2022. From a human point of view, that’s a hard pill to swallow. Form a trader’s point of view, that gives clarity to the fundamental background you operate in. Set your farthest targets accordingly.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?