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GBP/JPY has topped
Information is not investment advice
GBP/JPY formed a “shooting star doji” candlestick on the W1. This is a bearish sign. On the D1, the pair ran into the resistance of the 100-day MA (now at 134.50) and turned lower. On the H4, it has recently formed a lower high. The decline below this week’s lows around 133.30 may lead the pound down to the 50-day MA at 131.40. On the way down, there may be some support at 132.35 (38.2% Fibo of the September advance).
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.