Will the US economy lead the world into a global recession?
Whenever inflation exceeds 4% and unemployment falls below 5%, the US economy enters a recession in two years.
GBP: gaining versus others currencies
Information is not investment advice
Fundamentals
The British pound surged higher amid the optimistic news of the upcoming Brexit agreement. Recently, David Frost, the chief EU-UK negotiator, claimed that the deal may be done in September. Just to remind you, the deadline is scheduled for December 31. Meanwhile, it’s always the EU, which makes final decisions. The UK had already broken the promise to end Brexit talks in July. Therefore, the EU’s initial deadline for October seems more realistic. Elsewhere, two countries still have some disputes over the fishing waters, the UK’s sovereignty, the country’s laws and courts. Nevertheless, the fact that the Brexit agreement may be reached earlier than the deadline has calmed the market.
Moreover, the coronavirus has been taken under control in the United Kingdom, unlike other European countries, that recorded increasing infections. The UK was one of the last ones to impose a lockdown, but it kept strict restrictions for longer time. Thus, now when businesses have reopened, the British economic activity should improve significantly in the second part of the year and may even outperform other countries. Let’s look at the charts.
Technical tips
GBP/USD is trading above 1.3000. There is an initial resistance near the 1.3120 level, the pair bounced off this level several times. If GBP/USD breaks it through, it may surge to the next resistance at the high of August 6 at 1.3160, which the pair has failed to cross two times already. On the flip side, if the US dollar gets stronger, the pair may fall to the yesterday low at 1.3050. The move below this level will push the price lower to the support line at 1.3020. Follow further news!
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