GBP/CAD keeps plummeting

Information is not investment advice

The British pound continues its broad decline. No matter what the economic figures from the UK look like, the GBP is under the heavy weight of Brexit. Cross-party Brexit talks collapsed, more and more people talk about the likely resignation of the Prime Minister Theresa May and the increasing risk of a no-deal Brexit. The European Parliamentary Election may hurt the sterling even more if the Conservative party’s result is bad. The dismal fundamentals can make the GBP decline without significant pullbacks.

The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, is supported by higher oil prices after the OPEC signaled that it will likely maintain production cuts. 

Last week we recommended selling GBP/CAD and the pair has moved below our target of 0.7200. The pair still isn’t oversold, so the further decline is possible. GBP/CAD is currently trading around the 100-week MA at 1.7111. The close below 1.7147 (200-day MA) on Friday is a bearish sign. The 61.8% Fibo provides some support at 1.7050. The fall below it will open the way down to 1.6855 (78.6% Fibo). If there’s a pullback to the upside, the pair will meet strong resistance at 1.7340 and 1.7475.

Elizabeth Belugina

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