The G20 summit took place in Bali, Indonesia, on November 2022…
Fundamentals drive USD/CAD upper
Information is not investment advice
The poor Canadian data in combination with the positive US report should push USD/CAD to the upside. Jump in for technical analysis!
All attention to USD/CAD as economic releases have just come out from both sides. The Canadian labor report revealed that 245 800 people found jobs in August, while analysts had predicted 262 500. At the same time, the Canadian unemployment rate was 10.2%, which was slightly worse than the forecast of 10.1%. The negative data may weigh on the loonie.
As for the US economic releases, non-farm payrolls came out almost as planned: 1.371 million Americans became employed during August, while analysts foresaw 1.375 million. The US unemployment rate came out much better than anticipated: 8.4% vs. the forecast of 9.8%. Besides, average hourly earnings beat estimates too. They turned out 0.4%, while the forecast was 0.0%. The optimistic data should add tailwinds to the US dollar.
USD/CAD has been trading in the descending channel since the end of June. However, now the pair may even break through the upper trend line amid such strong fundamentals. Actually, it has failed to cross it so far. There is the main question now: will be stronger fundamentals or technical factors? Let’s see what will happen. The move above the intersection of the yesterday’s high and upper trend line at 1.3130 may drive the pair upper to 1.3190. On the other hand, if the pair falls below the key psychological mark of 1.3000, it may dip down to the low of January 6 at 1.2950. Watch out closely the breakout of these levels and follow further news!
The deafening news shocked the whole world yesterday: the British Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully at the age of 96…
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.