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EURUSD has moved back above 1.09

EURUSD has moved back above 1.09

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is now trading near the previous top. An upward wave would lead the exchange rate into fresh highs. Alternatively, a plunge of the market might bring the currency pair into a correction phase below the Tenkan sen level.


Market View

President Macron topped the first round of the presidential election and will face far-right Nationally Rally candidate Marine Le Pen in the run-off on 24 April. While Macron's first round lead (28%) over Marine Le Pen (24%) was bigger than he in 2017, polls point to a much narrower race for the second round (53-47%). With Macron's re-election far from assured, markets will keep a close eye on polls in the coming two weeks. 

In the equity space, stocks ended marginally higher last week but once again driven by the value defensive universe. On Friday Dow Jones ended higher by +0.5%, S&P 500 lower -0.2% and NASDAQ -1.2%. Very large moves in yields continuing this morning taking both European and US futures lower. Markets in Asia lower as well with China tech leading the declines.

In the FX space last week was about the strengthening of dollar and a drop in EUR. However, on Sunday opening the single currency did mark a slight relief rally after Macron's win in the first round of the presidential elections in France yesterday. EURUSD has moved back above 1.09 while EURJPY was trading at 136.50 at the time of writing.



Can a recession be avoided? 

The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession. 

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