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EUR/USD : targets higher before critical NFP number

EUR/USD : targets higher before critical NFP number

Information is not investment advice

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAU/USD: Gold facing a further consolidation above 23.6% retracement area. Bulls have returned before NFP.

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

CHF/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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US Market View

World equities are set to post a fourth consecutive month of gains on Monday, while the dollar remains under pressure ahead of a slew of European and U.S. data that will confirm whether the global economy is on a steady recovery path. The main event of the week will be U.S. payrolls on Friday with median forecasts at 650,000 but the outcome is uncertain following April's shockingly weak 266,000 gain. Although U.S. inflation data last week was above estimating, another big miss on the jobs front would heap pressure on the Fed to postpone plans to wind down on stimulus.

The dollar came under pressure on Monday, heading for its second consecutive monthly loss against the euro and the pound, as traders assessed the impact of a surge in U.S. inflation before monthly jobs data later this week.

Gold is heading for its biggest monthly gain since July as inflation remains the key focus, while Bitcoin at the same time is heading for its worst month since 2011. Prepare for another busy week for the bond market as US jobs data are released on Friday (TLT, IEF). If jobs numbers disappoint once again, the market would have some serious doubts about the state of the recovery. 

Australia RBA meeting tonight. Little is expected from this meeting as the RBA has set up the July meeting as the key decision point for whether to re-extend the horizon of its yield-curve-control policy.

Oil prices firmed on Monday, with Brent trading near $70 a barrel, underpinned by the bright outlook for fuel demand growth in the next quarter, while investors looked ahead to the OPEC+ meeting this week to see how producers will respond. All eyes will be on OPEC this week as it reviews its supply agreement, and any hint of an increase in output could pressure prices.

The euro zone is to release what will be closely watched flash inflation figures on Tuesday. Inflation in the bloc is fast approaching the ECB’s 2% target, but like their counterparts in the U.S. central bank officials are arguing that this is likely temporary. Last week ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said there was “nearly zero connection between any spikes in prices on the reopening of the world economy and what goes into the inflation trend”.

 

USA Key Point

  • Germany May preliminary CPI +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expecte
  • Oil stays perky ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorr
  • Bavaria May CPI +2.6% vs +2.0% y/y prior.
  • Spain May preliminary CPI +2.7% vs +2.4% y/y expected.
  • China reportedly holds meeting on measures to cope with ageing population, optimising birth polic
  • France's Le Maire: Convinced that economy will grow 5% this ye
  • Japan May consumer confidence index 34.1 vs 33.0 expecte
  • Heads up: Germany states' CPI readings due later toda

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