Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
EUR/USD: as low as three years ago
Information is not investment advice
Performance in 2020: -2.6%
Last day range: 1.0862-1.0923
52-week range: 1.0862-1.1338
Where does the support level come from?
It comes from spring 2017, almost three years ago. That’s how low the EUR/USD trades now. Therefore, if things keep going as they do now for this currency pair, you will have to hang your support levels in the “emptiness downstairs”. Unless you prefer looking at a weekly timeframe.
Why so bad?
The realistic answer to this question is that there are no solid factors to support the euro. In the meantime, those against it are numerous. Weak domestics growth in the Eurozone, questionable monetary policy line on behalf of the ECB, gloomy perspective of the outcome of the Brexit transition period, a significant probability of trade tensions with the US – you name it. The USD, on the contrary, has an 11-year continuous expansion of the American economy, strong labor indicators, notable resilience of the stock market even despite the Coronavirus, and justified actions of the Fed as presented by Jerome Powell this week. As you can see, it is little surprise that the EUR/USD has dropped to where it has not been for the last three years. And there is a high likelihood that we are yet to see it further down.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?