Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
EUR/JPY: probable consolidation ahead of extra gains
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
GBP/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold facing a further weakness the last hours and trading below a full time retracement area.
US Market View
U.S. stocks are seen opening lower Thursday, as investors consolidate ahead of a spate of economic data releases, headed by the weekly jobless claims numbers. The major indices all closed marginally higher Wednesday, near record highs, but worries that a stronger-than-expected economic rebound will result in higher inflation and thus sooner-than-expected monetary policy tightening have deprived the asset class of a lot of its momentum.
Due for release is the May ISM PMI, at 10 AM ET, which is expected to show renewed confidence in the vital services sector, especially after the equivalent numbers in Europe impressed earlier in the day.
First off the blocks is the ADP jobs number, at 8:15 AM ET, which is expected to say the economy added 650,000 private sector jobs in May, a slight slowdown from the 742,000 which were added in April.
The weekly initial job claims data follows 15 minutes later, with expectations calling for a number of 390,000 claims for the week ending May 28, an improvement from the 406,000 the previous week and a new post-pandemic low.
China hailed on Thursday the resumption of "normal discussions" with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically. China's Vice Premier Liu He, who has led trade negotiations with the United States, has held two video calls with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a week, marking the first formal engagement between the two sides on trade and economic issues under the Biden administration. Chinese state media also focused on the positive tone of the economic talks following frosty exchanges between top Chinese and U.S. foreign policy officials at a meeting in Alaska in March. The exchanges over the past week were "sparking optimism over enhanced communication between the world's two biggest economies", the Chinese state-run Global Times tabloid reported.
USA Key Point
- UK May final services PMI 62.9 vs 61.8 prelim.
- The market may be looking to tomorrow's NFP for answers but it might not get any.
- Dollar continues to hold slight advance on the session.
- Germany May final services PMI 52.8 vs 52.8 prelim.
- France May final services PMI 56.6 vs 56.6 prelim.
- Spain May services PMI 59.4 vs 57.9 expected.
- Dollar holds slight advance to start the session but nothing significant thus far.
- EUR/USD still room for a deeper retracement.
- Australia: Economy expected to expand 4.8% in 2021.
- USD/CHF set for a short-term correction back to 0.9075/98.
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.