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EUR/JPY is on shaky ground
Information is not investment advice
The euro is fundamentally weak: the recent economic figures from the euro area were quite disappointing. Such weakness has prevented EUR/JPY from getting back above 120.10 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2016-2018 advance). The pair formed two doji candlesticks on W1. Although there is a chance that the euro will keep consolidating above the support at 117.50 and make yet another go at 120.00, the break below this support will trigger a bigger selloff. The downside target will be at 115.35 (78.6% Fibo).
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.