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EUR/GBP : vulnerable for further downside

EUR/GBP : vulnerable for further downside

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

CAD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand on 23.6% retracement area. Bears have returned during the last hours and send price lower.

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EU Market View

Asian equity markets were subdued following the losses on Wall St; US equity futures traded flat overnight.  Asian shares retreated slightly on Wednesday with investors wary of any hint of hawkishness from the U.S. Federal Reserve given lofty asset valuations rely so heavily on an endless supply of super-cheap money. A looming data dump on Chinese retail sales and industrial production offered another reason for caution, with some modest slowdown in annual growth expected.

The dollar edged marginally lower in early European trade Wednesday, but remained near a one-month high as traders warily await the latest communications from the Federal Reserve following the recent jump in U.S. inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its latest two-day meeting later Wednesday. Although the two-day meeting is expected to culminate in an unchanged decision on interest rates and monthly bond purchases, the backdrop of sharply rising inflation as the country’s economy makes a solid recovery appears to be keeping traders on edge. Further evidence of these inflationary pressures, and thus raised fears of a hawkish surprise, emerged Tuesday, with data showing wholesale inflation jumped to record levels, just a week after consumer price rose to their highest level since 2008. 

Balancing this out, to a degree, May’s retail sales data came in weaker than expected on Tuesday, pointing to softer consumer spending, the backbone of the economy, even if April’s release was revised higher.

Still, even if there are some concerns over the Fed turning hawkish, the moves in the foreign exchange market have been limited of late, suggesting many still have faith in the Fed's commitment to provide clear signaling before making a move on monetary policy. The dollar held near a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as investors tried to ascertain if the Federal Reserve might alter the language on its stimulus following a recent jump in U.S. inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee has "indicated it will first offer ample notice to the market before beginning the taper conversation and furthermore give ample warning before formally announcing intentions to taper, a process which itself will take quite some time.

Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, UK inflation, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos.

EU Key Point

  • China retail sales, industrial production data due at the top of the hour
  • UK May CPI +2.1% vs +1.8% y/y expecte
  • UBS raises Brent oil forecast for September from $75 to $7
  • Germany reports 1,455 new coronavirus cases, 137 deaths in latest update today.
  • China said to order state enterprises to limit exposure to overseas commodities market

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