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EUR/GBP: euro looks stronger
Information is not investment advice
The euro is steadily strengthening versus the British pound. A week ago EUR/GBP formed a "bullish engulfing" pattern as it rebounded from nearly 2019 lows. Yesterday it closed above 100-day MA and 38.2% Fibo retracement of this year’s decline.
The euro is up on the news that the US would delay its decision about imposing tariffs on EU cars, while the pound is pressured by a continued impasse in Brexit talks between the UK’s major political parties.
It seems that EUR/GBP has finally broken out of the range within which it was trading in March and April. Support will now be in the 0.8710/0.8690 area. The way up implies an advance to 0.8785 (50% Fibo and the 200-day MA nearby). In the absence of overly negative news from the euro area, an advance to 0.8860 (61.8% Fibo) will also be possible.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.