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Equity markets were very heavy yesterday

Equity markets were very heavy yesterday

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is now testing the lower level of the cloud. A successful attempt to exit the Kumo will push prices towards the previous support. Alternatively, a higher thrust of the currency pair will lead the market to test the previous top.

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Market View

President Putin's speech ahead of the Victory Day parade on Monday provided little insight into what the next steps of the Russian army could be. In his speech, Putin claimed that provocation from the West and NATO led to the war in Ukraine, however, the speech could not be interpreted as an escalation, nor a de-escalation either. Rather, it seems Putin is preparing his domestic audience for a protracted conflict in Ukraine. While today's speech was a relief as it did not signal immediate escalation, the threat remains, and Putin did mention nuclear weapons in his speech. That being said, we think only a severe escalation could return markets' focus to the war, as a frozen conflict in Ukraine is largely priced in already.

In terms of EU sanctions, Reuter's sources suggest that the next draft would drop the ban on EU tankers carrying Russian oil, while some of the Eastern European states, Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, already secured exemptions from the embargo until 2024.

Equity markets were very heavy yesterday driven by US, growth, tech, small cap but also energy stocks. It seems that the stagflation fear turned into recession fear. During the day volatility was very high. NASDAQ at lowest levels since Nov-20 after 10% sell-off over the past three sessions. Dow Jones closed -2.0%, S&P 500 -3.2%, and NASDAQ -4.3%. 

The US and European futures are currently green.

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