Is the Oil Rally Over?
On Thursday, June 2, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) agreed to boost output by 648 000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August…
Energy Sector Outperformed the Broader Market
Information is not investment advice
Bloomberg reported that ‘the S&P 500 Energy Index has outperformed the broader S&P 500 by 21 percentage points so far this year, with the top-performing stock, Devon Energy Corp., gaining a whopping 167%’.
Now, energy stocks have outperformed the broader market for the first time since 2016! Moreover, analysts believe that this trend will continue despite the global shift to renewable energy resources.
“There’s a massive appetite to invest in it because it’s just spewing out cash right now,” said Rafi Tahmazian, whose energy producer-focused fund is up 91.2% year to date.
What is the forecast for oil in 2022?
As usually, opinions are divided. Some experts predict that oil prices may experience a correction. WTI oil (XTI/USD) is expected to drop to $66 per barrel by the end of the first half of 2022 and $65 per barrel by the year-end. Still, Tahmazian claimed energy companies could continue to be profitable with lower oil prices.
However, the OPEC+ alliance has upgraded the global oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022. The OPEC members believe that the omicron impact will be mild and short-lived. Indeed, the outlook for more robust demand in combination with the current supply limits can keep oil prices afloat.
Tech analysis
XBR/USD is moving inside the ascending channel. The key resistance level lies at $80.00. If crude oil manages to break above this level and close there, then oil has all chances to rally further to the October peak at $85.00. Support levels are at the intersection of the 50-week moving average and the lower trend line at $71.50 and $68.00.
Energy stocks to trade with FBS
Royal Dutch Shell #RDSB
Linde Plc #LIN
Anglo American Plc #AAL
Energy trading instruments in FBS
XTI/USD (WTI oil)
XBR/USD (Brent oil)
XNG/USD (Natural Gas)
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Why is oil's rally in danger?
Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
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