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Dollar steady in quiet start

Dollar steady in quiet start

Information is not investment advice

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XAU/USD: Gold facing a further consolidation on 61.8% retracement area. The battle between bulls and bears keep going.

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.

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US Market View

U.S. stocks are seen opening largely unchanged Monday, remaining near record levels as investors digest a potential new infrastructure deal. Global shares began the week with a cautious start on Monday as Asian and European markets fell after a spike in coronavirus cases across Asia over the weekend hurt investor sentiment while oil hovered around 2-1/2 year highs.

MSCI's All Country World Index, which tracks shares across 49 countries, was down 0.1% by midday trade in London. U.S. stock futures traded positive, indicating gains at the open on Wall Street later in the day.

French President Emmanuel Macron received a bloody nose in Sunday’s regional elections, with his centrist party estimated to have won only around 10% of the votes. However, yields on French bonds fell due to the failure of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to take advantage. She ran against Macron in the presidential election of 2017, when advocating taking France out of the European Union. 

The European Central Bank could end its emergency stimulus scheme next March and markets may be right in not pricing in an increase in more traditional bond purchases, Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann said on Monday. With the pandemic now receding, analysts, including the ECB's own Survey of Monetary Analysts, expect the 1.85 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Scheme to end next March and see no increase in volumes under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to compensate for the lost stimulus.

The race is on to save the European holiday season, as the highly contagious delta strain of the Covid-19 virus threatens to result in more travel restrictions just as the summer starts. The number of delta variant Covid cases in the U.K. climbed to over 35,000 last week, a 46% increase from the previous week, the reason why the U.K. government chose to delay the country’s complete reopening for a month.  An EU summit failed at the end of last week to agree a common line on quarantine requirements for travelers from the U.K., with countries who are dependent on tourism income resisting pressure from Germany's Angela Merkel for an EU-wide quarantine requirement on British arrivals.

 

USA Key Point

  • ECB's Holzmann: PEPP will end when virus emergency is over.
  • SNB's Maechler: Negative rates and FX interventions needed to to relieve pressure on franc.
  • ECB's Holzmann: We don't know yet what price path will bring.

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It’s Time to Look at New Zealand

Inflation in New Zealand is the highest since 1990, edging to 7.3% in Q2 2022. The currency is under heavy pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is trying to reverse the inflationary spiral. The week ahead will give us a valuable clue about the country’s monetary policy, and we are here to talk about that.

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