Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
Dollar keeps steadier so far on the session, payrolls in focus
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold still struggling to move higher and remains above 23.6% retracement area.
US Market View
U.S. stocks are set to open marginally lower Friday, consolidating ahead of the highly-anticipated May official jobs report. The major economies are starting to emerge from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic, and one of the consequences has been a surge in the number of merger & acquisition deals.
Euro zone retail sales fell more than expected in April, dragged down by a decline in sales of non-food products, but were still much higher than 12 months earlier when most countries were under strict pandemic lockdowns, data showed on Friday. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell 3.1% month-on-month in April but were 23.9% higher than a year earlier.
China is likely to lean on incremental steps to slow the yuan's gains to deter speculators and help its exporters, shunning drastic measures that could undermine its goal to liberalise the currency and boost the yuan's global clout, policy sources said.
The U.S. labor market appears to be picking up steam with Thursday’s jobless claims and private job gains data coming in ahead of expectations, but now the attention turns to May’s NFP report for confirmation. Expectations at the start of the week were for 650,000 jobs to have been added last month, but after Thursday’s strong numbers these have started to climb.Still, the conditions are conducive for a strong number. The success of the country’s vaccination program has resulted in millions of fully-vaccinated adults eager to resume their lives, fewer pandemic restrictions, reopened schools and offices equipped to welcome back workers.
Crude oil prices pushed higher Friday, continuing the recent rally to multi-year highs amid optimism that global demand for fuel was recovering from the depths of the pandemic. Confidence is flooding into the oil market that demand will surge in the second half of the year as the U.S., China and Europe lead a robust recovery from the pandemic, despite a Covid-19 comeback in parts of Asia.
U.S. crude stockpiles fell more than expected on Thursday in another bullish sign for the market, with data from the U.S. energy information administration showing a draw of just over 5 million barrels last week, bigger than the expected 2.4-million-barrel draw.
USA Key Point
- Eurozone April retail sales -3.1% vs -1.5% m/m expecte
- UK May construction PMI 64.2 vs 62.0 expecte
- Germany May construction PMI 44.5 vs 46.2 prio
- Heads up: Key central bankers to speak later in the da
- European equities little changed at the open toda
- US jobs report to prove to be litmus test for the dolla
- AUD/USD trades with modest gains, upside seems limited ahead of NFP.
- EUR/USD looks depressed and approaches 1.2100, looks to Lagarde.
- Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD consolidates in a range below mid-$27.00s.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.