Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar!

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Dollar keeps steadier after yesterday's bounce.

Dollar keeps steadier after yesterday's bounce.

Information is not investment advice

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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.

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Fibonacci Levels

 XAU/USD: Gold continuous to stand below 38.2% retracement area. Bearish pressure gains momentum once more.

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EU Market View

Asian shares mostly held onto this week's gains on Thursday, despite hawkish remarks from a senior official at the U.S. Federal Reserve that boosted the dollar while weighing on risk appetite. The dollar edged higher in early European trading Thursday, after hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve prompted traders to price in an earlier tightening of monetary policy. The dollar has been in a state of flux over the last couple of months, first rising after the June meeting of the Federal Reserve saw several members bring forward their timetable for interest rate hikes before slipping back after Chairman Jerome Powell stated last week that interest rate increases were still in the distance.

Friday NFP release which is attracting the most attention. The median forecast is for 870,000 jobs, but there is a broad range of estimates given the potential impact of the spread of the delta Covid-19 variant n the labor market.

BoE will grow more optimistic and less dovish in today’s meeting but policy members as a group will be divided on tapering. At least one and likely two policymakers will vote for tightening. If there are more than two, we could see a sharply positive reaction in sterling.

Oil was up Thursday morning in Asia, with investors surprised by a build in US crude oil supply, but still supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil supply shows on Wednesday showed a build of 3.636 million barrels in the week to Jul. 30. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com had predicted a 3.102-million-barrel draw, while a 4.089-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week.

Gold was little changed on Thursday morning in Asia, as investors digested remarks from a top U.S. Federal Reserve official that indicated the central bank could begin asset tapering sooner than expected. The yellow metal gave up most of its overnight gains, however, after Fed Vice Chair Clarida suggested that conditions for higher interest rates can be met by end 2022. He also said the Fed could begin asset tapering later in the year, earlier than expected.

 

 

EU Key Point

  • Australia: Melbourne to go into seven-day lockdown.
  • Germany June factory orders +4.1% vs +1.9% m/m expected.
  • US announced $750m weapons sale to Taiwan.
  • Australia has 42 consecutive months of trade surplus.
  • Australian state Queensland records another higher new COVID-19 case count today.
  • Recap of comments from Fed's Daly - sees taper later this year or early 2022.
  • Daly says her modal outlook is that the Fed will be able to taper later this year or early next year.
  • UK says arrivals from France will no longer need to quarantine if they are fully vaccinated.

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