Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
Commodity currencies slump to fresh lows on the day as the dollar catches a bid
Information is not investment advice
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
AUD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.
XAU/USD: Gold facing some weakness the last hours and trading below 38.2% retracement area.
US Market View
U.S. stocks are seen opening mixed Thursday, with investors readying themselves for more earnings reports as well as the release of key unemployment data .China's growth slowed, but became more balanced, in the second quarter. U.S. industrial production data for June are due, as are weekly jobless claims. China's economy grew more slowly than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 7.9% from a year earlier, missing expectations for a rise of 8.1%. Rising commodity prices and new Covid-19 outbreaks weighed on the numbers.
At the same time, industrial output grew 8.3% in June from a year earlier, slowing from a 8.8% rise in May, while retail sales rose 12.1% from a year earlier, in a welcome sign of rebalancing toward domestic consumption.
It's a heavy day for U.S. data, with weekly jobless claims numbers and industrial production data for June topping the bill. Initial claims for benefits, due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), are expected to have inched down to 360,000 from 373,000 a week earlier. Such a development would harden suspicions that the improvement in the labor market is slowing down. Bank of England policy makers signaled that stimulus measures may have to be trimmed back soon to keep inflation from overheating. Michael Saunders on Thursday joined Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden in noting that both growth and inflation in the U.K. economy have exceeded the central bank’s latest forecasts in May. The remarks sent the GBP higher as much as 0.3% and prompted traders to bet on a BOE interest-rate increase in May 2022, almost a full year ahead of expected tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Speaking a day after data showed U.K. inflation unexpectedly surged to 2.5%, Saunders said the BOE may have to consider curtaining its stimulus program “in the next month or two” to contain inflation as the economy rebounds. Ramsden said on Wednesday he could “envisage those conditions for considering tightening being met somewhat sooner than I had previously thought.”
Crude oil prices weakened Thursday, weighed by an unexpected rise in U.S. gasoline stocks as well as talk that OPEC+ is nearing an agreement on increasing production levels. Gold is on the rise for the third straight session. The precious metal is building on 1% gains from Wednesday as the fundamental picture improves. Inflation is surging. Both consumer and producer price inflation continue to hit multi-year highs, yet the Fed remains firm in its position that the spike in inflation is temporary and no tightening in monetary policy is required yet. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, so rising inflation often boosts demand for the yellow metal, while the Fed sitting on their hands is a win-win for gold
USA Key Point
- US June import price index +1.0% m/m vs +1.2% expecte
- US weekly initial jobless claims 360K vs 360K expecte
- US July Philly Fed 21.9 vs 28.0 expecte
- Fed's Bullard: It's time to end these emergency measure
- OPEC says world oil demand to reach 'comparable pre-pandemic levels' in 202
- Commodity currencies slump to fresh lows on the day as the dollar catches a bid.
- BOE's Saunders: BOE not doing average inflation targeting, unlike the Fe
- Pound gains as Saunders float hawkish remarks.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.