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Pandemic stimulus boosted everything from stocks to crypto and property worldwide in 2021. Unfortunately, China went the other way as Beijing officials took action to deflate bubbles.
The result is one of the most extreme divergences between major financial markets in recent history. This year’s sell-off in the HK50 index means the gauge lags global peers by 37 percentage points, the most significant gap since 1998.
Investors remain vulnerable to the Communist Party’s unpredictable policymaking. Hopes that Beijing was close to the end of a crackdown on the tech sector were dashed when Didi Global Inc. was asked to delist from the US.
The growing divide between Beijing and Washington also threatens company profits. On December 15, Chinese biotech stocks plunged after the Financial Times said the US Commerce Department plans to ban some companies in the industry from using American technology.
History teaches us that these are usually the periods that offer the most attractive opportunities. Wall Street analysts and experts predict that the Chinese index can make up to 40% profit in 2022, especially as Beijing shifts to monetary policy easing.
The global market expects policymakers to support the economy in 2022 to prevent a hard landing. That would mean easing off on a regulatory pressure that has depressed the valuations of Chinese assets. The People’s Bank of China reinforced that consensus this month when it freed up liquidity for lenders. Moreover, on Monday, December 20, the government decreased the key rate from 3.85% to 3.8%.
Key comments:
Goldman Sachs
"We believe Chinese stocks will have a better year in 2022 as the market recovers from a major correction and transitions into a 'hope' phase, where P/E expansion typically trumps weak fundamental growth and drives strong equity gains."
Morgan Stanley
"MSCI China has had its worst ever relative performance drawdown vs. broad emerging markets in 2021...despite such a record underperforming year, we still see some lingering risks skewed towards higher volatility or more downside in the near term. This makes us believe that now is not yet the right time to go bullish at a broad index level."
HSBC
"We think markets have been overzealous in selling Chinese stock... most funds are underweight and as the focus returns to growth in China, we think this market will roar back."
HK50 weekly chart
HK50 is trading above the global trendline on the weekly chart.
Monthly RSI has found its support at the level of 39.50.
We expect the price to consolidate between 23 000 and 24 000 in the first quarter of 2022. After that, the Chinese index will begin its way to the top with targets at 26 000 and 29 000.
The S&P 500 had a good week due to the impressive start of Q1 earnings and favorable inflation data. In March, the consumer price index rose 5%, lower than the previous month's 6%, and met economists' expectations.
FAANG stocks started recovering. Which ones are the best according to fundamental analysis?
The previous year 2022, was undoubtedly tumultuous for the stock markets, with several stocks plummeting across multiple industries. Analysts have blamed the hard times on inflation, hawkish federal reserve policies, an impending global recession, and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. This year, however, we're beginning to see some recovery in the stock markets. This article will find a few stocks worth buying this year.
eurusd-is-falling-what-to-expect-from-the-future-price-movement
Greetings, fellow forex traders! Exciting news for those with an eye on the Australian market - the upcoming interest rate decision could be good news for Aussies looking to refinance or take out new loans. The Mortgage and Finance Association Australia CEO, Anja Pannek, has...
Hold onto your hats, folks! The Japanese yen took a nosedive after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged, including its closely watched yield curve control (YCC) policy. But wait, there's more! The BOJ also removed its forward guidance, which had previously pledged to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. So, what's the scoop? Market expectations had been subdued going into the meeting, but some were still hoping for tweaks to the forward guidance to prepare for an eventual exit from the bank's massive stimulus
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