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British pound looks for direction after a neutral BOE decision

British pound looks for direction after a neutral BOE decision

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

GBP/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver facing a further consolidation the last hours and trading below 50% retracement area.


US Market View

U.S. stocks are set to open marginally higher, with recent corporate earnings and economic data having been generally strong.

The pound is little changed after the announcement following a bit of a small whipsaw but before we dive into price action and implications for the currency, let's take a look at what the BOE served up in its August monetary policy meeting. A 6-2 vote on QE was expected with Ramsden and Saunders pinned for the dissenting camp but instead it was only the latter that really walked the talk. While 7-1 seems more dovish on paper, it really isn't since that this wasn't a game changer whatsoever.

European stocks are on course for their strongest weekly performance in three months, as upbeat quarterly earnings and loose monetary policy supported markets despite a surge in COVID-19 cases and concerns about inflationary pressures. Stronger-than-expected quarterly reports have led analysts to lift their projection to a near 140% jump in second-quarter profit for companies listed on the STOXX 600, as per Refinitiv IBES data.

The U.S. looks set to phase in a gradual re-opening for international visitors, eventually requiring all foreign travellers to be fully vaccinated before they are allowed entry. The country has seen a rise in Covid-19 cases, particularly among the unvaccinated, amid the spread of the delta variant. Florida is at the heart of the latest outbreak, with the state registering 11,515 hospitalized patients on Tuesday, breaking last year’s record for the third straight day and up from just 1,000 in mid-June. On the flip side, the U.K. announced Thursday that fully-vaccinated passengers returning from France will no longer need to quarantine after Sunday, helping boost the travel industry which has been hit hard by the pandemic.

Fed member Clarida sparked more debate about when the Federal Reserve will start reigning in its extraordinary monetary stimulus saying Wednesday that he’d be in favor of the Fed making an announcement later this year that it will begin to scale back its bond purchases.He also noted that the “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.”  Clarida, seen as one of the most influential members of the FOMC, was careful to add that growth must remain strong for these views to remain valid.

 Oil prices rose towards $71 a barrel on Thursday on rising Middle East tensions, while fresh movement restrictions imposed by countries to counter a surge in COVID-19 cases threatened the demand recovery.


USA Key Point

  • BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 0.10% as expected.
  • UK banks are ready for negative rates, if it comes
  • BOE to unwind QE when bank rate hits 0.50%.
  • Moderna says COVID-19 booster shot will likely be necessary prior to the winter season.
  • Japan PM Suga says that not considering implementing nationwide state of emergency.
  • ECB economic bulletin: Recovery on track but delta variant constitutes a growing source of uncertainty.
  • France's Macron: It is quite likely third vaccine dose will be needed for the elderly and most vulnerable.
  • Tokyo reports daily record of 5,042 new COVID-19 infections in the past day.



How Will BoJ Meeting Affect the Yen

Hold onto your hats, folks! The Japanese yen took a nosedive after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged, including its closely watched yield curve control (YCC) policy. But wait, there's more! The BOJ also removed its forward guidance, which had previously pledged to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. So, what's the scoop? Market expectations had been subdued going into the meeting, but some were still hoping for tweaks to the forward guidance to prepare for an eventual exit from the bank's massive stimulus

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