Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
AUD: the MAs pincers
Information is not investment advice
The Australian dollar gives an unusually strong picture in the Forex market lately. On the H1, behaving almost identically against the USD and the JPY, the AUD recovered its losses after reaching its local low on Tuesday. Interestingly enough, the currency pair entered a channel right between the 100-MA and 200-MA as if it was “caught” there.
Switching to H4 timeframes gives the same peculiar formation: the currency pair trades between the 50-MA and 100-MA, showing an upward recovery after a recent drop. Technically, such a disposition makes it easy to evaluate the expected movement of the AUD: one it crosses the support or resistance of the respective Moving Average, it will confirm the taken direction.
The long-term outlook, however, offers no consolation for the AUD fans. The strategic picture has no support for the Aussie, even with the recovering China ahead of the rest of the world, as the country has little to put against the economic powers of the US or Japan in the Forex field. That’s why, betting on the AUD in the short-term or mid-term, keep in mind that in the long run, that’s a bearish current – which was confirmed a while ago when the AUD renewed its multiyear lows.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.