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AUD/NZD: is it time for a correction?
Information is not investment advice
AUD/NZD experienced an impressive rally since the end of March. This week the currency pair ran into the resistance of the 50-week MA (1.0700) and 50% Fibo of the August-March decline. The possibility of a short-term correction down is high. Selling is possible below the 200-day MA (1.0675) with a target at the next Fibo level of 1.0620.
A break above 1.0755 (200- and 100-week MAs) is needed to open the way up to 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo).
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.