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From the very beginning of 2018, the overall direction of AUD/JPY was a decline. On the weekly chart, this downtrend is visible, with the 50-week Moving Average serving as the resistance. Since then, the price has tested that resistance two times. Now, we are observing the third time. Therefore, the question is: will it be just another such time or a start of the long-term trend change.
Recently, the price came close to the resistance level of 76.00, which is a 6-months high. On the daily chart, it did the same in November but then dropped. Now, as it is testing the 200-day Moving Average being already above the 50-day and 100-day MAs, it is likely to go into consolidation at the present level.
In fact, we are observing a collision of the 2-years downtrend and the 6-months uptrend. For this reason, whatever the outcome, climbing further up will be difficult, and the price will have to fight its way to actually break through the 200-day Moving Average and the resistance level of 76.00. If it does, we will see a new large trend emerging.
In the course of the abovementioned mid-term consolidation, the price is likely to drop to the area of 74.50. That is approximately where the local 1-week downtrend will cross the 6-months uptrend and the 200-period and 100-period MAs. If the price drops below the mentioned Moving Averages, it should be for a relatively short period of time.
The local downtrend is also confirmed by the reading of the Awesome Oscillator, which just crossed the zero-line downwards after two descending consecutive peaks.
In the short-term, the price shows signs of continuing the downward trend. In the mid-term, we are likely to see consolidation. In the long-term – we have to wait to see the overall trend being broken or continued further.
To understand the factors behind the AUD/JPY price movements, read the news and examine the fundamentals for this currency pair.
The number of Americans applying for initial unemployment benefits came in at a larger-than-forecast 870,000 last week, signaling that the recovery in the labor market is losing momentum as the coronavirus pandemic lingers and layoffs continue apace.
The GBP is likely to move upward until it reaches the resistance of 1.2795.
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The number of Americans applying for initial unemployment benefits came in at a larger-than-forecast 870,000 last week, signaling that the recovery in the labor market is losing momentum as the coronavirus pandemic lingers and layoffs continue apace.
The GBP is likely to move upward until it reaches the resistance of 1.2795.
The aussie is expected to plummet for the next six months. What is the reason?
