Ichimoku Kinko Hyo CNH/JPY: The CNH/JPY pair is trading above the Kumo…
AUD/JPY: testing the resistance
Information is not investment advice
From the very beginning of 2018, the overall direction of AUD/JPY was a decline. On the weekly chart, this downtrend is visible, with the 50-week Moving Average serving as the resistance. Since then, the price has tested that resistance two times. Now, we are observing the third time. Therefore, the question is: will it be just another such time or a start of the long-term trend change.
Recently, the price came close to the resistance level of 76.00, which is a 6-months high. On the daily chart, it did the same in November but then dropped. Now, as it is testing the 200-day Moving Average being already above the 50-day and 100-day MAs, it is likely to go into consolidation at the present level.
In fact, we are observing a collision of the 2-years downtrend and the 6-months uptrend. For this reason, whatever the outcome, climbing further up will be difficult, and the price will have to fight its way to actually break through the 200-day Moving Average and the resistance level of 76.00. If it does, we will see a new large trend emerging.
In the course of the abovementioned mid-term consolidation, the price is likely to drop to the area of 74.50. That is approximately where the local 1-week downtrend will cross the 6-months uptrend and the 200-period and 100-period MAs. If the price drops below the mentioned Moving Averages, it should be for a relatively short period of time.
The local downtrend is also confirmed by the reading of the Awesome Oscillator, which just crossed the zero-line downwards after two descending consecutive peaks.
In the short-term, the price shows signs of continuing the downward trend. In the mid-term, we are likely to see consolidation. In the long-term – we have to wait to see the overall trend being broken or continued further.
To understand the factors behind the AUD/JPY price movements, read the news and examine the fundamentals for this currency pair.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?