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AUD/JPY : Risk on gains further amid possitive news

AUD/JPY : Risk on gains further amid possitive news

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

AUD/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAU/USD: Gold facing some strength the last hours but trading below 23.6% retracement area.


US Market View

 U.S. stocks are seen opening higher Tuesday, with the tech sector expected to bounce back sharply after recent losses as vaccination optimism grows. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives will have the final vote on President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill on Tuesday after it passed the Senate with some revisions over the weekend. That clears the path for the president to sign it by next week. Adding to the positive news, the CDC said Monday that people who’ve been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 can meet safely indoors without masks. This announcement came with over 30 million Americans having received both doses of vaccines.

Crude prices had surged Monday, with Brent spiking above $70 a barrel, after an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities by Yemen-based forces. However, there was limited impact and prices ended the day lower. Gold found some support near the $1675 region and is edging higher on Tuesday. The yellow metal should remain resilient as the US dollar is set to resume its downtrend while real yields are not expected to march forward in the coming months.

USD/JPY has climbed from just below the 104.00-level at the end of January to a fresh intraday high of 109.20 which has brought the pair back to within touching distance of the high from last June.

USA Key Point

  • Treasury yields stay on the retreat ahead of North American trading.
  • AUD/USD runs test of key near-term levels as dollar holds weaker on the day.
  • Eurozone Q4 final GDP -0.7% vs -0.6% q/q second estimate.
  • Dollar retreats further on the session on lower yields.
  • Gold gets a slight reprieve on the day, but the outlook is still rather gloomy.
  • GBP/USD eases from tops, intraday uptick falters near 1.3900.
  • WTI climbs to $69 area following Monday's correction.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 to advance towards the 3867 high of 2020.
  • NZD/USD extends rebound above 0.7170 amid broad USD weakness.
  • USD/CHF slides to 0.9320 area, retreats further from multi-month tops.
  • USD/JPY corrects from multi-month tops.



Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?

The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.

Will USDJPY slide lower in 2023?

Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?

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