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AUD/JPY : risk on gains before NFP number

AUD/JPY : risk on gains before NFP number

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

CHF/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver facing a significant appreciation and it is trading above 50% retracement area.


US Market View

Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance fell last week by more than projected, reaching a fresh pandemic low and suggesting that dismissals are abating as the economy reopens and labor demand rises. Initial claims in regular state programs decreased by 51,000 to 364K in the week ended June 26, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 388,000 initial applications.

Futures tracking the SP500 hovered near a record high on Thursday, with investors awaiting a batch of economic data to gauge the health of the U.S. economy following strong gains for the equity market in the first half of the year. The Labor Department's weekly jobless claim report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell for the week ended June 26, albeit at a slower pace amid labor shortages.

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that foreign powers will "get their heads bashed" if they attempt to bully or influence the country, in a tub-thumping speech marking the centenary of the ruling Communist Party's founding.He also pledged a “complete reunification” with Taiwan, saying it was not a problem 'to be passed from generation to generation'.  According to the Financial Times, the U.S. and Japan have both stepped up planning for a military confrontation with China over Taiwan in recent weeks. 

Crude oil prices edged higher Thursday, aided by lower U.S. inventories, as investors awaited news from a meeting of top producers over future production levels.

USA Key Point

  • US initial jobless claims 364K vs 390K estimate.
  • The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest.
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia reportedly reach preliminary deal on raising oil output.
  • Italy PM Draghi: Euro area inflation remains low, accommodative monetary policy is necessary.
  • USD/JPY extends gains to highest level since March last year.



Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?

The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.

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