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AUD/JPY: a chance for more
Information is not investment advice
There are many positive developments in AUD/JPY - a higher low formed last week, the close above the 100-day MA on Thursday (73.75) and the formation of the bullish “Rising three methods” pattern on the D1. On the H1, the pair is consolidating within a symmetric triangle. On H4, there’s bearish divergence. As a result, a short-term correction down is likely before the pair continues the advance. All in all, as long as it stays above 73.75, it will have a chance to rise to 74.50 (September highs) and 75.00 with the ultimate resistance at 76.00 (200-day MA).
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?