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AUD benefits from the biggest trade surplus ever

AUD benefits from the biggest trade surplus ever

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

CAD/JPY: The pair is trading above the cloud. An upward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bullish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand on 23.6% retracement area. Bearish pressure is growing day by day.


EU Market View

European stock markets are seen opening lower Thursday, following weakness on Wall Street and in Asia overnight amid resurgent worries over higher bond yields and extended equity valuations.

Looking ahead, highlights from macroeconomic calendar include Eurozone & UK construction PMI, EZ retail sales, unemployment, US IJC, OPEC+ meeting, Fed's Powell, ECB's Centeno, Knot, supply from Spain, France & the UK. Fed Beige Book stated that economic activity expanded modestly from January to mid-February for most Federal Reserve Districts.

Yields of major European government bonds, with German bunds being the main example, have also risen, but by less than their American counterparts, amid some mixed signaling from the European Central Bank over whether or not it needs to react. Many Fed officials have downplayed the rise in Treasury yields in recent days, although Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday acknowledged concerns over the possibility a rapid rise in yields could dampen economic activity.

Oil prices climbed higher Thursday, as traders positioned themselves ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a grouping known as OPEC+.

EU Key Point

  • Commodity currencies bounce back after softer start to the day.
  • Nikkei 225 closes lower by 2.00%.
  • Germany reports 11,912 new coronavirus cases, 359 deaths in latest update today.
  • Japan February consumer confidence index comes at 33.8 vs 30.0 than expected.
  • RBA's Kearns says house price gains are not a concern right now, to be expected.
  • The RBA pushed back hard on rising yields; other central banks seem more relaxed.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking Thursday.
  • US Senate will not vote on coronavirus aid bill Wednesday.



Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?

The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates? Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee had previously ended the year 2022 with a 50bps hike, and an indication from Powell, the committee chairman, that the Fed could consider raising interest rates by 75bps in the course of the year 2023.

Will USDJPY slide lower in 2023?

Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?

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