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All eyes are focusing on today's US inflation number

All eyes are focusing on today's US inflation number

Information is not investment advice





Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

EUR/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. A downward pressure would lead the pair to exit further the cloud, confirming a bearish outlook.


Fibonacci Levels

 XAG/USD: Silver continuous to stand above 50% retracement area. Bullish pressure is growing during the last days and it seems that bulls have decided to send price higher.


EU Market View


The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted businesses to rapidly digitize their operations, leading to a surge in productivity in the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts said. Since the health crisis began, annualized growth in output per hour has risen 3.1%, a big jump from the 1.4% growth recorded in the previous business cycle, the analysts said.

More than 900,000 people in France rushed to set up appointments to get vaccinated on Monday night after the president warned that people would see curbs imposed on them if they did not have a health pass that covered a vaccine or negative COVID test. Unveiling sweeping measures to combat a surge in infections, Emmanuel Macron said vaccination would not be compulsory for the general public for now but stressed that restrictions would focus on those who are not vaccinated.

The European Central Bank has pledged to be "persistent" and will not repeat its past mistake of tightening policy too early, its president Christine Lagarde said in an interview published on Tuesday. "The use of 'persistent' (in the ECB's new strategy) is an indication that there cannot be premature monetary tightening as we have seen it in the past," Lagarde told the Financial Times.

The dollar barely budged against the euro, yen and pound on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data, while the Australian dollar and Chinese currency ticked higher after reassuring export numbers from Beijing.The possibility of U.S. stimulus withdrawal - brought to the fore by a surprise shift in tone last month from the Federal Reserve - has boosted the dollar in recent weeks despite a renewed rise in coronavirus cases in many parts of the world. With U.S. consumer price inflation later likely to feed the debate, the greenback was virtually unchanged versus the euro at $1.1856 after its more than 2% rise versus the common currency over the last month. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. CPI to have risen 0.5% from May and 4.9% from a year earlier. Dealers reckon a miss on either side could move the dollar and the bond market by shifting expectations on interest rates.


EU Key Point

  • ECB's Lagarde: New strategy gives us ability to be flexible around 2% inflation.
  • BOE says FPC expects to maintain countercylical capital buffer rate at 0% at least until December.
  • Germany June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
  • Risk tones keep steadier ahead of European trading.



Can a recession be avoided? 

The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession. 

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