The Future of Meta

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Last year, a new old company was born. Back in October, Facebook’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg introduced Meta - a new company aimed to bring together apps and technologies under one new company brand.

Meta will focus on creating and developing the Metaverse – a network that combines the 3D virtual worlds and online social experiences. It will let you share your digital experiences with other people even when you can’t be together and do things together you couldn’t do in the physical world. Mark Zuckerberg pledged to spend $10 billion a year over the next decade on developing this new universe.

It may seem like this is an elegant way for Mr. Zuckerberg to clean his reputation after multiple antitrust complaints by the Federal Trade Commission. However, the FTC continues its lawsuit against Meta to push Meta to sell Instagram and Whatsapp. The commission blames Meta for anti-competitive conduct and potential manipulation of advertising sales.

Does Meta seem like a real deal right now? Let’s find out.

First of all, despite the updated brand, it did not provide any critical updates to any of its social media platforms. All the buzz around Meta seems as far as conquering Mars for now. For example, Meta has introduced hundreds of applications for patents related to its Metaverse and even announced plans to implement hyper-targeted advertising. One of these patents includes the avatar-personalization engine that uses biometric data. At the same time, Meta acknowledged that its patents don't necessarily cover the technology used in its products and services.

People’s opinions on the Metaverse currently depend on whether they view owning and operating a “digital self” through the lens of dystopia (“The Matrix”) or harmless fun (“Fortnite”). This fact limits the possibilities of Metaverse in the heads of regular people and makes it a sort of a game.

Secondly, some analysts also believe that the whole "Meta" thing is just an attempt to distract from lawsuits and leaked documents that the changes are profit-driven and won't bring any fundamental breakthrough.

Thirdly, the big rivals of Meta: Apple, Google, and Microsoft, are developing similar projects. For example, Apple is working on an AR/VR headset.

As a result, the main focus will remain on the good old Instagram. Instagram Reels, a look-a-like of TikTok, has been the key growth driver for engagement on the platform. This factor is especially crucial if you are going to trade on the upcoming earnings release of Meta on February 3. 

Now, the main question is: Will the stock of Meta rise?

In the short term, it can.

If we look at Meta's stock in the short term, we can see that it has been trading in a range since November. The rebranding did not excite buyers, and the main resistance for the stock remains at 350. The rise towards this level may happen after a swing from 310.  

In the longer term, there are huge uncertainties around a lawsuit and the future of the digital universe.

As a result, we can see levels below 300 within a year.

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FBS Analyst Team

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