The US national GDP is in focus next week

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Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

April 25th, 16:00 GMT+2.

The US Consumer Confidence Index is published on Tuesday. Economists expect the index to be 104.2 points – the same as the previous month’s.

The preliminary fact from Michigan University demonstrated growth in consumer confidence for April.

Consequently, we may expect CB Confidence Index to be released even better than the forecast, and EURUSD will fall.

The economy is slowing down in the long run; consumers should confirm that sooner or later. The interest rate hike usually has a lag and a lagging impact on the confidence index.

What is also really important is that the US stock market keeps rising despite the interest rate growth, creating a false impression of the lack of economic recession.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD

Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI)

April 26, 03:30 GMT+2.

Economists expect that Australian inflation will slow down in Q1.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar devaluated against the US currency by almost 2%. By the way, the Australian dollar showed one of the worst results among the developed economies.

Australian retail sales in the first quarter rose, and the unemployment rate decreased. It means that there are more employed consumers in the country and that they were more active during the last three months.

CPI will be even higher than expected.

Here are the quotes from the last Australian meeting minutes:

‘It is important to note the need for further rate increases’.

‘Inflation is still very high.’

We think that the Australian dollar may rise.

Instruments to trade: AUDUSD, AUDCAD, AUDCHF

US GDP

April 27, 14:30 GMT+2.

The week's most important news is the US national GDP for the first quarter released on Thursday. Economists expect 2% of growth when in the previous quarter, GDP was growing by 2.6%. Let’s look at it in detail:

1. Trade balance deficit started increasing. It was -$68.6B in January, and in February reached -$70.5B.
2. Consumption in the first quarter was mixed. Retail sales grew significantly in January but then started slowing down. Core retail sales showed 2.8% of growth in January.  
3. The budget deficit started growing again, meaning government spending may be high.
4. Industrial production slightly increased in Q1.

According to the Bank of Atlanta’s predictor (GDPNow), growth is expected at 2.5%.

Consequently, the official GDP will be higher than 2.0%, But it is unlikely to surpass the previous fact. USD may rise.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY

German CPI

April 28, 14:00 GMT+2.

German inflation is released at the end of the week. Economists think that in April, the fact grew by 0.7%.

Composite PMI in Germany for March stayed at the same level –still higher than 50%. But Service PMI has already started falling. The economic activity is still intense, but it’s not the same as some time ago.

It’s hard to say precisely how the price grew, but if CPI is higher than expected (owing to the oil prices, for example), EUR may start rising.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURCAD, EURAUD

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