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How to Stay Calm and Trade on Uncertainties
Information is not investment advice
February 2022 was extremely unstable in the markets. The escalation of conflict between Ukraine and Russia, surging inflation in the United States, and the energy crisis in Europe resulted in significant volatility on the charts of gold, oil, gas, and exotic USDRUB. Despite the negative news and worrying headlines, we recommend traders to make mental reframing of the situation. This way, you can look at the market from a different perspective. Let’s observe how you can take advantage of the uncertainties and make the fundamentals work for you!
Follow the prices of oil and gas
Since 2011, Russia has been working on the development of Nord Stream 2. This is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. After Russia’s President Putin started a war in Ukraine, it pushed the owner of Nord Stream 2 to freeze the approval process for opening. Moreover, as Russia is a commodity-rich country, blocking its exports to other countries pushes the prices for energies to fresh highs.
On March 3, the price of Brent tested the 115 level, while WTI surged to 110. As for the gas price, it moved higher towards 5.
Recommendation: If you want to trade commodities during uncertain times, follow the news. For oil, the most crucial headlines are Iran's nuclear deal, the Russia-Ukraine war, and OPEC+ meetings. If Iran's nuclear agreement is reached, more oil will be pumped into the market. This factor can cool the oil prices down. However, the prolonged tensions between Ukraine and Russia can provide further bullish momentum to oil. Technically, the oil prices look overbought, as shown on the RSI chart. Thus, in case of a correction, the first support for Brent will lie at $93. For WTI, the key level on the downside lies at $89.60.
Don’t forget about safe-havens
The uncertain time is perfect for trading safe-haven assets such as gold and Japanese yen. This is because they keep outperforming amid the overall risk-off sentiment in the market.
Gold tested the $1970 level on February 24. If the tensions in Eastern Europe escalate, it can strengthen to $2000.
Recommendations: While gold keeps moving within an ascending channel, it has a great potential to reach 1970 soon. If the geopolitical picture changes, the yellow metal will plunge to $1890.
Given the significant economic sanctions against Russia, including the ban of several big Russian banks from SWIFT, Russia has a high chance of turning to crypto. Moreover, with many miners and crypto users in Russia, the demand for crypto will increase. As a result, we will see BTC and other coins going higher.
BTCUSD reversed from its lows and reached the 45 000 level on March 2. Technically, the pattern on the daily chart resembles the double bottom that signals the reversal to the upside.
Recommendations: After the breakout of the 45 000 level, Bitcoin can retest the resistance of December 2020 at 52 000. Altcoins will follow the movements of Bitcoin as well.
Stay cool as a Forex trader
If you trade on Forex, nothing will stop you. The foreign exchange is open 24/5 and allows you to make long and short trades. Thus, you are ready for any change in the market. However, don't forget about risk management and analyze the news thoroughly to succeed.
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