Economic Calendar - Currencies

Coincident Index correlates with the business cycle, and is used to identify the current state of the economy. In general, increasing coincident index shows that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is calculated using month-over-month percentage changes in 11 leading indicators, 11 coincident indicators, and 6 lagging indicators.

In Japan, the Leading Composite Index consists of 12 indexes such as account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. The index anticipates changes in the direction of the Japanese economy in the coming months. In general, increase in the index reflects that the economy is in an expansion phase, and decreasing coincident index reflects that the economy is in a contraction phase. The index is used to make official judgement on when the business cycle begins and ends.

Switzerland has been running consistent trade surpluses. The biggest trade surpluses are recorded with the US, India, the UK, China, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore; and the largest deficits were recorded with the UAE, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Thailand.

In South Africa, the Composite Leading Business Cycle Indicator examines the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in real time. It is calculated on the basis of the following components: building plans approved, new passenger vehicles sold, commodity price index for main export commodities, index of prices of all classes of shares traded on the JSE, job advertisements, volume of orders in manufacturing, real M1, average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing, interest rate spread, composite leading business cycle indicator of the major trading-partner countries, business confidence index, gross operating surplus as a percentage of GDP. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2010.

The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is based on a survey of 2000 individuals age 14 and above. The questionnaire focuses on income expectations, buying propensity and savings. The components of the indicator are calculated as the difference between positive and negative answers to the questions asked. Their value can vary between minus 100 and plus 100 points with 0 representing the long term average.

In the UK, public sector net borrowing measures the change in the public sectors accruing net financial indebtedness. This represents the balance for the financial account: the difference between the net acquisition of financial assets and the net incurrence of liabilities. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

In the UK, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) measures the gap between revenue raised (current receipts) and total spending. Total spending refers to current expenditure plus net investment (capital spending less capital receipts). Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is often referred to by commentators as “the deficit”.

In France, Business Climate measures industrial entrepreneurs’ sentiment about current business situation and expectation about business conditions. The survey sample comprises about 4,000 enterprises in the manufacturing and mining industries. The indicator is calculated using factor analysis technique. The index is then calculated in a way to measure the current sentiment in relation to the historic index values of the period 1993-2011. A value over 110 indicates unusually high optimism and a value under 90 indicates unusually high pessimism. The value 100 indicates neutrality.

In France, the Business Climate Composite Indicator summarizes the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys.

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate.

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate.

In South Africa, Producer prices change refers to year over year change in price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market during a given period.

In South Africa, the Producer Price Inflation MoM measures a month-over-month change in the price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market.

The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) monthly retail sales balance is a gauge of retail sales versus a year ago. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 150 retail and wholesale companies. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.

In France, unemployment benefit claims refer to the change in number of people claiming unemployment benefits in mainland France.

In the United Kingdom, the Confederation of British Industry‘s Industrial Trends Survey of total order book balance tracks changes in the level of factory orders from around 500 companies across 38 sectors of manufacturing industry. The survey covers domestic and export orders, stocks, price, investment intentions and output expectations. For each variable, manufacturers are asked if present situation is above normal, normal or below normal. The results are presented as a weighted percentage balance, that is, the difference between the percentage of respondents replying more or up to each question minus the percentage replying less or down.

In the United Kingdom, the Business Optimism Index is published by the Confederation of British Industry's in its Industrial Trends Survey. An average of 400 small, medium and large companies from the manufacturing sector is surveyed each quarter. The Questionnaire accesses the overall sentiment regarding general and export business situation, investment, capacity, order books, employment, output, stocks, prices competitiveness regarding domestic, EU and non-EU markets and innovation and training. For each assessment is computed a sub-index as the percentage of positive answers minus the percentage of negative answers. The composite index is then computed as the weighted average of the sub-indices. An Optimism Index of +100 indicates that all survey respondents are much more confident about future prospects, while -100 suggests that all survey respondents are much less confident about future prospects. An index level of 0 indicates neutrality.